Headed Downriver!

Nikolai - Tuesday Afternoon

Nikolai – Tuesday Afternoon

Pete and the Team took a 5 hour break after a 6 hour run in from their camp spot at Little Egypt last night. They were back on the trail at 3:20 for a 48 mile run into McGrath and then a 23 mile run into Takotna where I assume he will stick to the game plan and take his 24 hour layover.

The trail to McGrath is a well traveled snowmachine trail that should be pretty hard packed. A couple of weeks ago, the Iron dog mushers had very fast times on this trail which is a good indication of the condition.

Eight mushers left within 20 minutes of each other so I imagine it is quite a scene out there with all of the dogs and sleds headed down the river.

Temperatures are rising into the 30’s unfortunately, but that is good for Pete and the Team because they can take their 24 and hopefully this storm will pass. (It could also hang around as well, so either way is a gamble) Speaking of a gamble, this year’s Southern route will take them closer to the warmer temperatures, so it will be interesting to see if Martin Buser’s gamble will pay out as he keeps going while other mushers are standing pat.

Long range outlook is for the warm storm to pass to the North this weekend, but that puts all of the mushers in the thick of it.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA...ASIDE FROM STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO INITIALLY SUPPORT
SNOW. WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECT STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WHEN IT FIRST ARRIVES. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AT A PRETTY GOOD PACE WHEN IT FIRST REACHES
SOUTHWEST ALASKA SO WARMER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN. THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER THERE IS WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A BRIEF BLIZZARD. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE
THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
WHERE AIR MASS WILL START OUT A LITTLE COLDER AND WHERE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL HOLD IN LONGER.
.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TO SOUTHWEST ALASK
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND. MODELS THEN INDICATE A STRONG
BLOCKING RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS STORM TRACK WILL BE HELD WEST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 185.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...132 150 155 160 170.
         GALE WARNING 130 138 165 171 172 179 180.

 

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